England’s Covid lockdown could be delayed by one month

 England’s Covid lockdown could be delayed by one month

England’s Covid lockdown could be delayed by one month

Islamabad, 12June: The government is considering delaying the lifting of England’s remaining Covid restrictions by up to four weeks, sources have told the International media.

The final stage of lifting lockdown, originally planned to take place no earlier than 21 June, would see all legal limits on social contact removed.

It comes amid growing concern over rapidly increasing cases and the higher transmissibility of the Delta variant.

Downing Street sources emphasised that no final decision has been made yet.

Data is still being examined ahead of a final announcement scheduled for Monday, and a senior government source stressed the government was considering “options – plural” for step four of England’s roadmap.

Pushing the date back would allow the vaccination programme to take greater effect, as the rollout moves through to younger age groups.

The Times and Sun newspapers first reported that ministers were considering the delay.

The last part of ending lockdown in England would see nightclubs reopen, and an end to restrictions on performances, weddings and other life events.

Pressure on England’s PM

England’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson has faced mounting pressure to push back the 21 June date in recent days.

The British Medical Association has joined public health officials in calling for a delay.

BMA council chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul said: “It’s not just about the number of hospitalisations, but also the risk to the health of large numbers of younger people, who can suffer long-term symptoms.”

It is often said the vaccination programme has broken the link between infections and hospitalisation.

But in truth it has just weakened it. During winter about one in 10 Covid infections went on to become a hospital admission. Now with admissions rising early data suggests it may be close to one in 20.

If that’s right and the trajectory in terms of increasing infections continues we could see 2,000 admissions a day within two months. That’s twice what the NHS would normally see for all types of respiratory infections in a bad winter.

But that’s a lot of ifs – and the data on its own doesn’t tell the full story. More admissions seem to be among younger people this time who are less sick.

That makes sense as very low numbers of the double-jabbed are ending up in hospital.

There’s a lot of uncertainty. In a few weeks scientists will be able to give ministers a clearer idea of the cost of a full unlock so it can be balanced against the benefits. What’s more, the number of vaccinations done would be higher, providing even more protection.

However, the data suggests nearly two-thirds of people infected with the Delta variant have not had a single dose of a Covid vaccine. Officials stress that two doses of the vaccine provide significantly more protection than one.

At the current rate of growth, as estimated on Thursday, the UK will reach 15,000 cases a day by 21 June and January levels of infections by late July – that is without any further relaxation of rules.

Dr Mike Tildesley, reader in infectious disease modelling at the University of Warwick and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group of Sage, told to International Radio.

“We are starting to see perhaps early signals that hospital admissions are going up but it’s still unclear,” he said.

He added that even with a delay there would be a wave of cases and hospital admissions, and the government would have to weigh that up against the benefits of unlocking.

Web Desk

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